I've looked around the site for anything related but i couldn't find any clues.
My take at it is that using the volitional form with と思う you're expressing your plans in the near future as in
今晩は薬を飲んで早く寝ようと思います。
you think you'll take your medicine then fall asleep probably said on the same day or even a few hours before doing the action.
whereas volitional form + と思っている you're expressing your plans probably a few years in the future
来年、フルマラソンに挑戦しようと思っている。
you're thinking about taking on the challenge of a full marathon next year and probably saying that you've been thinking of taking on the challenge is correct too because you're still thinking, probably haven't even started preparing for it or probably even still considering it?
I'm not really sure about this, it's just a speculation, is part of what i said correct?
Answer
In my understanding...
- ...しようと思う
"I think I will...", "I'll probably..." (not fully decided, 予想している)
- しようと思っている
"I'm thinking of...", "I'm planning to..." (more-or-less decided, 仮に計画している)
留学しようと思います
- I think I'll study overseas.
留学しようと思っています
- I'm thinking of studying overseas.
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